鈥淲hen it comes to transport, there鈥檚 currently a strong focus on battery power. But I don鈥檛 believe in a single solution. Many different methods are needed to achieve emission targets. Green hydrogen has great potential, as hydrogen can store large amounts of energy and the only emission is water,鈥� says Ou Tang, professor of production economics at Link枚ping University.
The European Union has identified green hydrogen as one of the keys to reducing fossil emissions from transport in Europe. They estimate that as much as 50 per cent of the transport sector鈥檚 energy needs could be met by green hydrogen by 2050. For hydrogen to be classified as green, it must be produced by wind or solar power.
Chicken or egg
However, hydrogen currently only covers a small fraction of energy demand, and 95 per cent of Europe鈥檚 hydrogen is produced using fossil fuels. Ambitions are high, but the road ahead is long. And getting more heavy hydrogen-powered vehicles onto the roads is not as straightforward as it might seem.
Ebba Nordqvist
鈥淚t鈥檚 what you might call a 鈥榗hicken-and-egg鈥� dilemma. If haulage companies and others are to buy hydrogen-powered vehicles, there need to be refuelling stations that make it easy to use the vehicles. But on the other hand, more vehicles are needed for prices per vehicle to fall and for more people to buy them, which in turn would stimulate the expansion of refuelling stations,鈥� says Ou Tang.
In a new study, published in the journal Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, he has analysed the costs of locally produced green hydrogen in different parts of Europe up to 2050.
Denmark and Iceland exceptions
What Ou Tang found was that in countries at more southerly latitudes, such as Malta, Portugal and Spain, the cost of local green hydrogen production would be lower, as conditions for solar energy in particular are more favourable. In Nordic countries such as Sweden, Finland and Norway, the cost would be the highest of all the countries surveyed, mainly due to the lack of sunlight. Two Nordic countries that stand out, however, are Denmark and Iceland, where production would be cheaper thanks to stronger winds.
If hydrogen production were instead connected to the electricity grid, the picture would look very different. For example, Sweden is a country that often produces surplus electricity that could be used for this purpose. According to Ou Tang, however, the origin of the electricity would likely be questioned due to the involvement of nuclear power and, to some extent, fossil fuels. Nevertheless, he believes this may be a necessary step towards eventually achieving fully green hydrogen production.
Ebba Nordqvist
鈥淗ydrogen is in the same position as electric cars were 10鈥�15 years ago. When you鈥檙e trying to solve a problem, it鈥檚 easy to imagine it can be done in one step. In reality, the transition takes years. The potential for hydrogen is enormous, but change doesn鈥檛 happen overnight. I hope the results can give decision-makers better guidance for the expansion of green hydrogen,鈥� says Ou Tang.
Analysed 320 cities
In the analysis, he examined refuelling facilities where hydrogen is produced adjacent to the facilities using solar or wind power. In other words, these are stand-alone facilities that are not connected to the electricity grid, where renewable electricity is used to split water and produce hydrogen. The scenario also examines the role of batteries as a possible solution to stabilise production during weather fluctuations and to reduce costs over time, as battery prices fall.
And weather is a key factor when it comes to the cost of green hydrogen production. For this reason, Ou Tang has analysed weather data for the ten largest cities in 32 European countries, covering a total of 320 cities where green hydrogen production could be envisaged.
The analysis is based on data from a 16-year period in which solar radiation and wind speed were recorded hourly. The information was converted into corresponding electricity production. In the calculations, he has also taken into account expected future reductions in the costs of equipment and materials.
The research is financed by Familjen Kamprads Stiftelse.
Article: , Ou Tang, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Volume 205, 2026, published online 30 October 2025. DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2025.104519
